An article in the New York Times (Oct 11, 2011) describes the contradiction faced by shipping companies. Growth in retail sales have inspired strong retail growth forecasts into the future. But dropping manufacturer shipments at ports suggest demand downturns at retail.  Should the container shipments be used as a better guide than sales projections to forecast trends this holiday season? Does this inconsistency suggest a significant supply chain breakdown in the apparel industry or a transfer of risk because domestic manufacturers can respond faster though at higher past price points?