Airbus and Boeing long term airplane demand forecasts

An article in the New York Times (September 19, 2011)  states that Airbus predicts that a demand for 27,800 airplanes by 2030 with a potential revenue impact of $ 3.5 trillion and an implied air traffic growth rate of 4.8 %.   of this projected demand over one third is expected to be from India and China.  Earlier, Boeing had estimated a demand of 33,500 jets (across all categories) by 2030 with a value of $ 4 trillion.  Given these forecasts from competing major manufacturers, and their sensitivity to continued growth in India and China, how much reliability would you attribute to these forecasts ? These projected volumes enable amortization of initial startup (fixed) costs for new aircraft over a larger volume – how big a factor is that impact in the estimation of these volumes ? Given demands by governments for local content, how do you expect the demand locations to impact the global supply chains of the airplane manufacturers ?

About aviyer2010

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