Cocoa risks – high prices, the EU deforestation initiative, cocoa substitutes

An article in foodnavigator.com titled “Six startups rethinking cocoa for alt choc innovation” describes the combined impact of cocoa bean prices exceeding 10,000 euro per metric ton and the new European Deforestation Regulation starting December 2024 as driving substitutes for cocoa. Celleste Bio uses a couple of cocoa beans and a reactor to produce two tonnes of cocoa. Choviva uses oats and other plant based input to produce a substitute with a 90% lower carbon impact. Will the switch to new technologies permanently reduce demand for cocoa beans? Should Ghana and Ivory Coast proactively attract such companies as a hedge against demand drops for cocoa beans? Will carbon impact become a salient feature in chocolate bars?  

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